Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 5.1 percent higher but gave back some of those gains in early week trading and fell 4.2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 0.7 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 47.47 cents/liter (179.71 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 5.2 percent higher but are down 0.4 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.55 cents/liter (172.41 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.4 percent to 53.56 cents/liter (202.75 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.01 cents/liter (-30.34 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 0.8 percent last week and were firmer in early week trading to gain 1.9 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 36.34 cents/liter (137.58 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was unchanged while Toluene was up 1 percent, and Xylene was down 0.4 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 101.12 cents/liter (382.8 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 55.58 cents/liter (210.38 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week and were stronger still in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 0.9 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 1.6 and up 0.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.8 percent higher at $82.46/barrel while Brent futures are up 2.4 percent to $87.38/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week but offers for Brazil to India saw the largest gains (up 4 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 7 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are mostly unchanged this week. Freight rates across all origins are 45 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.7 percent this week and are down 21.3 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $780.84/MT this week, up 1.2 percent from the prior week but down 9.9 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $709.66/MT and are up 1.6 percent from last week but are down 16.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.6 percent from last week.
