Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.2 percent lower and were weaker still in early week trading and fell 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 50.3 cents/liter (190.39 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 3.3 percent lower but are up 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.58 cents/liter (183.91 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 1.6 percent to 56.36 cents/liter (213.35 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.78 cents/liter (-29.44 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 3.8 percent last week and held a softer in early week trading to fall 0.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 2.23 cents/liter (8.45 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week and are steady/higher through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.2 percent while Toluene was up 0.6 percent, and Xylene was up 0.5 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 73.88 cents/liter (279.65 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 25.29 cents/liter (95.75 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week and continued that strength in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2.2 percent to start the week while FOB Gulf prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 3.4 and up 4 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 3.6 percent higher at $63/barrel while Brent futures are up 3.9 percent to $65.24/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to Europe seeing the largest gains (up 14 percent). Freight from Brazil to China saw the largest declines and is down 11 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has also posted a 4 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 9 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 35 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.9 percent this week and are down 9 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $688.96/MT this week, down 0.2 percent from the prior week and down 9.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $674.14/MT and are down 0.7 percent from last week and are down 7.2 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 2.9 percent from last week.
