Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.6 percent lower and retreated further in early week trading to fall 1.2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 47.99 cents/liter (181.65 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 6.7 percent lower and are down 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.51 cents/liter (172.27 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.1 percent to 55.11 cents/liter (208.63 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.61 cents/liter (-36.36 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 0.2 percent last week and extended that strength in early week trading to gain 3.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 8.37 cents/liter (31.68 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 1.5 percent while Toluene was up 1 percent, and Xylene was up 0.9 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 77.28 cents/liter (292.53 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 31.77 cents/liter (120.26 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but pulled back sharply in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 10.3 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 11.2 and 11.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 12.5 percent lower at $64.62/barrel while Brent futures are down 12.2 percent to $66.3/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 26 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 122 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia saw the largest declines and is down 6 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 36 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted an 18 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 20 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 11 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher freight rates offset the lower FOB offers for ethanol. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.4 percent this week and are down 16.7 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $662.65/MT this week, down 1.8 percent from the prior week and down 16.6 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $654.4/MT and are up 1.2 percent from last week but are down 16.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 2.5 percent from last week.
