Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.5 percent higher and were firmer still in early week trading and rose 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 49.38 cents/liter (186.94 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.3 percent higher but are down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 47.52 cents/liter (179.89 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.1 percent to 56.9 cents/liter (215.4 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.38 cents/liter (-35.51 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 3.7 percent last week but gave back most of those gains in early week trading to fall 3.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 3.21 cents/liter (12.13 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week but turned lower through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.2 percent while Toluene was down 1.3 percent, and Xylene was down 1.6 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 75.21 cents/liter (284.72 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 27.69 cents/liter (104.83 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week and extended that rally in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 3.5 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 2.2 and up 2.5 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.2 percent higher at $68.5/barrel while Brent futures are up 2.9 percent to $70.29/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 9 percent lower on average this week with offers for U.S. PNW – WC Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 4 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 39 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 14 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 5 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 9 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 27 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly mixed this week as changes in freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have largely offset one another. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 1.2 percent this week and are down 16 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $719.01/MT this week, up 0.1 percent from the prior week but down 8.9 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $669.23/MT and are up 0.1 percent from last week but are down 16.6 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.4 percent from last week.
