Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.5 percent higher but reversed course in early week trading and fell 4.5 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 55.66 cents/liter (210.69 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.7 percent lower but are up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 54.64 cents/liter (206.82 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 4.2 percent to 61.79 cents/liter (233.89 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.15 cents/liter (-27.07 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 0.6 percent last week and were weaker still in early week trading to fall 1.3 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 20.07 cents/liter (75.99 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week and maintained a generally firmer tone through Tuesday’s market close, though prices were mixed. Benzene is up 1.5 percent while Toluene was up 0.1 percent, and Xylene was down 0.2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 88.83 cents/liter (336.26 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 34.2 cents/liter (129.45 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week and pulled back further in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1.6 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 0.2 and down 0.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.3 percent lower at $81.12/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.3 percent to $83.96/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 5 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to West Africa seeing the largest gains (up 19 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to India saw the largest declines and is down 1 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 8 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 4 percent this week. Freight rates across all origins are 43 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have climbed higher. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.8 percent this week and are down 14.3 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $873.84/MT this week, up 3.6 percent from the prior week and up 5.8 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $810.14/MT and are down 0.1 percent from last week and are down 12.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 2.5 percent from last week.
