Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.6 percent lower and continued that trend in early week trading and fell 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 0.9 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 47.33 cents/liter (179.15 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.6 percent higher and are up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 46.34 cents/liter (175.4 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; and are higher still in early week trading, rising 2.2 percent to 54.07 cents/liter (204.67 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.73 cents/liter (-29.27 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 1.2 percent last week but erased those gains in early week trading to fall 1.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 13.82 cents/liter (52.31 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week and were stronger still through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 1.2 percent while Toluene was up 2.6 percent, and Xylene was up 2.7 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 75.8 cents/liter (286.94 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 29.47 cents/liter (111.54 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but were weaker in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 1.6 and 1.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.8 percent higher at $74.56/barrel while Brent futures are up 1 percent to $77.3/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers for nearly every route from the U.S. Gulf and PNW and Brazil trading lower. Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 7 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 30 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as gains in FOB prices for ethanol offset the weaker freight market. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.2 percent this week and are up 0.5 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $667.98/MT this week, down 3.5 percent from the prior week and down 2.4 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $669.05/MT and are up 0.1 percent from last week but are down 0.2 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 2.2 percent from last week.
