Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week unchanged but rallied in early week trading and rose 1.9 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.65 cents/liter (176.6 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.7 percent lower but are up 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 46.06 cents/liter (174.35 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.3 percent to 48.53 cents/liter (183.715 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -2.47 cents/liter (-9.37 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 3.7 percent last week and extended those gains in early week trading to gain 4.9 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 25.67 cents/liter (97.16 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week and continued that dynamic through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 1.6 percent while Toluene was up 2.5 percent, and Xylene was up 2.5 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 95.79 cents/liter (362.59 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 49.73 cents/liter (188.24 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week and built upon that rally in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2.2 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 2.1 and up 4.3 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.5 percent higher at $74.37/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.6 percent to $79.78/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 4 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 12 percent). On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 7 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 2 percent, on average, this week and freight rates across all origins are 36 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have climbed higher. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.7 percent this week but are down 20.7 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $707.96/MT this week, up 1.1 percent from the prior week but down 18 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $701.17/MT and are up 1.3 percent from last week but are down 19.6 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1.5 percent from last week.
