Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.9 percent lower but pulled back in early week trading and fell 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 1.7 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.05 cents/liter (174.33 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.2 percent lower and are down 2.7 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 44.41 cents/liter (168.13 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 3.1 percent to 53.09 cents/liter (200.98 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.68 cents/liter (-32.86 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 4.3 percent last week but paused those in early week trading to fall 0.3 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 31.77 cents/liter (120.25 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week but were mixed through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 2 percent while Toluene was down 0.5 percent, and Xylene was down 0.5 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 97.03 cents/liter (367.28 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 52.61 cents/liter (199.16 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but found strength in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 3.3 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 3.1 and up 2.7 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.4 percent higher at $73.31/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.9 percent to $78.77/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent lower on average this week with offers the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia seeing the largest declines and falling 15 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 3.2 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 60 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower liquid tanker freight rates have offset slight gains in FOB ethanol offers. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 4.1 percent this week and are down 21.8 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $793.54/MT this week, up 2.2 percent from the prior week but down 12.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $717.65/MT and are down 4 percent from last week and are down 18.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1.6 percent from last week.
