Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.9 percent higher and were firmer still in early week trading and rose 0.6 percent through Monday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower last week but were up 0.9 percent through Monday’s market close to their last quote of 46.59 cents/liter (176.38 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.8 percent lower but are up 0.8 percent through Monday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.36 cents/liter (171.73 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1 percent to 52.95 cents/liter (200.44 cents/gallon) through Monday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Monday’s trading and is currently at -7.59 cents/liter (-28.72 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 1.6 percent last week but largely erased those gains in early week trading to fall 1.1 percent from Friday’s close through Monday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 15.04 cents/liter (56.94 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week but showed diverging trends through Monday’s market close: Benzene was down 1.1 percent while Toluene was up 2.2 percent, and Xylene was up 1.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 73.37 cents/liter (277.72 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 28 cents/liter (105.99 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but were firmer in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 0.3 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 0.3 and up 0.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.3 percent higher at $69.7/barrel while Brent futures are up 0.3 percent to $72.75/barrel, from Friday through Monday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates mostly unchanged this week with freight markets entering their seasonal holiday doldrums. Tanker freight offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico have seen the largest gains so far and are up 1 percent. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf and PNW and Brazil are all unchanged in early-week, pre-holiday trade. Freight rates across all origins are 25 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as FOB ethanol offers have seen support. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.4 percent this week but are down 6.8 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $685.37/MT this week, up 0.7 percent from the prior week but down 1.6 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $665.43/MT and are up 0.3 percent from last week but are down 3.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.5 percent from last week.
