Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.7 percent lower and dropped further still in early week trading and fell 1.7 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.5 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 50.16 cents/liter (189.87 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.3 percent higher but are down 0.5 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 49.68 cents/liter (188.05 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 2.1 percent to 57.75 cents/liter (218.6175 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.08 cents/liter (-30.57 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 6.7 percent last week but pared back that weakness in early week trading to gain 2.2 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 1.73 cents/liter (6.55 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week but were firmer through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 6.6 percent while Toluene was up 0.8 percent, and Xylene was up 1.9 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 70.29 cents/liter (266.09 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 20.62 cents/liter (78.04 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but were mixed in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 0.4 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 0.2 and up 0.3 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.4 percent lower at $63.14/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.6 percent to $66.9/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America seeing the smallest declines (down -1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to South Korea saw the largest declines and is down 4 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 4 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 3 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 9 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.9 percent this week and are up 7.2 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $739.61/MT this week, down 1.6 percent from the prior week but up 5 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $731.08/MT and are down 1.3 percent from last week but are up 3.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.5 percent from last week.
