Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 4.5 percent lower but reversed those losses in early week trading and rose 4.7 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 49.87 cents/liter (188.77 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 4.5 percent lower but are up 1.7 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.92 cents/liter (185.18 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 1.7 percent to 57.39 cents/liter (217.23 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.47 cents/liter (-32.06 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 8.8 percent last week and extended that rally in early week trading to gain 5.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 13.1 cents/liter (49.6 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.9 percent while Toluene was up 0 percent, and Xylene was up 2.7 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 71.88 cents/liter (272.1 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 22.96 cents/liter (86.93 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week and strengthened further in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2.4 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 3.4 and up 4 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.1 percent higher at $70.84/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.8 percent to $74.07/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 5 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America seeing the largest gains (up -2 percent). Freight from the U.S. PNW to Philippines saw the largest declines and is down 6 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 5 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 4 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 20 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower liquid tanker freight rates have offset slight gains in FOB ethanol offers. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.7 percent this week and are up 5.2 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $737.38/MT this week, up 0.8 percent from the prior week and up 5.5 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $726.83/MT and are down 1.3 percent from last week but are up 4.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.9 percent from last week.
