Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.4 percent lower but pared those losses in early week trading and rose 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 47.75 cents/liter (180.76 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.5 percent higher and are up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 46.62 cents/liter (176.49 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 2.2 percent to 57.86 cents/liter (219.02 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -11.23 cents/liter (-42.53 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 0.9 percent last week but reversed that weakness in early week trading to gain 1.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 29 cents/liter (109.79 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were mostly lower through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.5 percent while Toluene was down 0.2 percent, and Xylene was up 0 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 101.54 cents/liter (384.39 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 54.92 cents/liter (207.89 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week and continued that trend in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 0.4 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 0.2 and down 0.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.5 percent lower at $85.26/barrel while Brent futures are down 0.5 percent to $90.02/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week but offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia have seen the largest gains (up 6 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 17 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW is unchanged. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 2 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 6 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 1.2 percent this week and are down 28.4 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $826.00/MT this week, down 2 percent from the prior week and down 13.9 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $710.48/MT and are down 0.8 percent from last week and are down 26.8 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are unchanged from last week.
