Corn Harvest Quality Report 2013/2014

C. Outlook

1. U.S. Outlook

  • The ample U.S. corn supply for projected MY13/14 is pushing corn prices downward while supporting its use in the domestic market, resulting in a projected overall increase in domestic use of 11% from MY12/13.
  • Domestic corn use for livestock and poultry feeding and for residual use is expected to be about 20% higher in MY13/14 than in MY12/13 and at the highest level since MY08/09. Many factors are driving this demand including the decline in the relative price of corn to other feedstuffs and the return to profitable U.S. livestock production.
  • Corn use for food, seed and non-ethanol industrial (FSI) purposes is expected to be 4% higher in MY13/14 than in MY12/13, most likely due to ample supply and lower prices.
  • MY13/14 estimated corn use for ethanol is slightly higher than the previous marketing year (5%). Actual domestic use of corn for ethanol production will depend on domestic consumption (influenced by biofuels policy and ethanol prices), net ethanol trade and the change in ethanol stock levels.
  • U.S. corn exports during MY13/14 are off to a strong start because of lower prices increasing the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the world market. The projected exports for the current marketing year are significantly higher than last year (up 92 %). However, actual MY13/14 exports meeting expectations will most likely be dependent on corn prices remaining relatively low.
  • MY13/14 corn ending stocks in the United States are projected to be more than double the ending stocks of the previous year marketing primarily because of the large corn crop. This will result in a much higher stocks-to-use ratio than for MY12/13.

2. International Outlook

Global Supply

  • Global corn production during MY13/14 is expected to be a record-setting year, primarily due to the large U.S. corn crop.
  • Greater production in Ukraine, China, Russia, Serbia, and several EU countries such as Poland and Germany will offset significantly lower production in Brazil and smaller decreases in countries such as Kenya, Argentina, and Paraguay.
  • In addition to higher U.S. exports, total nonU.S. exports are also expected to be slightly higher in MY13/14 than in MY12/13.
  • Exports from Ukraine, Serbia, Russia, and some EU countries are expected to be higher in MY13/14, offsetting lower exports from Brazil, India, and Argentina.
  • Global Demand

    • Global use is expected to increase around 11% in MY13/14 from MY12/13.
    • Year-over-year increases in imports are expected in Mexico, China, Japan, South Korea, Egypt, Colombia, Iran, and Kenya, while decreased imports are projected for the European Union 27 (EU 27), Turkey, and Indonesia.