Colombia 2040 Study Released At Council Event In Bogota

The U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC’s) Latin America office recently presented the findings of its Colombia 2040 study to feed, poultry and livestock industry executives and other relevant players involved in the supply and demand of feed grains in Colombia. In addition to several USGC staff members, Jim O’Connor, a producer from Minnesota and the Council’s Western Hemisphere Advisory Team leader, and Jim Douglas of the Indiana Soybean Alliance attended the event.

Since the ratification of the free trade agreement with the United States, Colombia has consistently been among the top 10 export markets for U.S. corn, and in the last five marketing years, Colombia has been among the top five corn export partners.

To assess the accelerated growth in Colombian feed imports between 2000 and 2015, the Council commissioned a study in 2015 to determine if that trend would continue to 2030. A new study increased the timeline of focus to 2040 after receiving funds from the Indiana Corn Marketing Council in 2020; however, due to the uncertainties brought about by the pandemic, the execution of the study was postponed until 2021.

“Updating and expanding the original study was relevant for the Council’s understanding of how the Colombia 2030 study’s identified critical factors for feed grains demand remained valid. This became even more relevant after COVID-19 due to its impact on the country’s economy, animal protein consumption and on the definition of policies to further develop domestic corn production under food security arguments. Besides that, adding a new decade provides scenarios for expanding future demand from this important export partner,” said Ana Ballesteros, USGC marketing director in Latin America.

The study found that yellow corn demand will continue to expand in the next two decades at an average annual rate of about two percent. This is a slower pace than the growth rate of nearly five percent experienced between 2010-2019; however, it translates into a total demand of yellow corn between 9.4 and 9.7 million metric tons (MMT) up to year 2040.

Assuming that domestic production remains stagnant, this growth represents an additional export potential of three to four MMT of corn for which the U.S. holds a competitive position due to the trade promotion agreement between the U.S. and Colombia and its geographical proximity to the market.

“Besides forecasting future corn demand, the study identified opportunities and constraints for the growth in Colombia’s animal protein production industries, including production and feed management, upstream and downstream supply chain variances and consumer-oriented product trends and distribution channels. These findings are valuable for the industries utilizing feed grains, but also provide insights for our future programing in the country,” Ballesteros said.

“Knowing about the major trends and influences impacting these industries in the future helps the Council identify programs that support their growth and contribute to feed grains demand growth.”

While in Bogota, for the release of the Colombia 2040 study, the Council also presented the findings of its 2021/2022 Corn Harvest Quality Report to end-users in the area. During this time, O’Connor and Douglas spoke on U.S. production. A sister report, the Corn Export Cargo Quality Report will be released in early spring, measuring corn quality at the point of loading for export.

“The corn quality reports are a great opportunity for the Council to be in contact with end-users of corn around the world. It is an opportunity to continue providing unbiased and reliable information on the quality of the corn that end-users will receive to prepare them for what their imports may look like,” Ballesteros said.

“The eleventh harvest report presentation was also our first in-person event since COVID-19 began, and customers attending were very appreciative of the effort. We also offered a hybrid session for those who could not attend in person.”

The Council will continue working in partnership with the feed, poultry and pork industry associations in Colombia, identifying, understanding and supporting projects that contribute to their industry growth.

Watch the Colombia 2040 summary video.