Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.6 percent higher and continued that rally in early week trading to rise 1.2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 0.9 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 49.59 cents/liter (187.73 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 4.3 percent lower but are up 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.4 cents/liter (183.2 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.5 percent to 57.83 cents/liter (218.91 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.43 cents/liter (-35.7 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 4.2 percent last week but were quiet in early week trading and fell 0.2 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 3.92 cents/liter (14.86 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week and saw that support continue through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 3.1 percent while Toluene was up 1.2 percent, and Xylene was up 0.7 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 72.5 cents/liter (274.46 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 24.11 cents/liter (91.25 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week but are steady/firmer in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 1.6 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are both essentially unchanged. WTI futures are 1.6 percent higher at $62.94/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.2 percent to $66.22/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week with offers for Brazil to China seeing the largest gains (up 14 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 19 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 6 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 12 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 32 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.9 percent this week and are down 6.8 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $695.46/MT this week, up 2 percent from the prior week but down 7.8 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $669.86/MT and are up 1 percent from last week but are down 7.8 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.5 percent from last week.
