Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.3 percent lower and extended those losses in early week trading and fell 1.8 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 49.14 cents/liter (186.02 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 3.4 percent lower and are down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.15 cents/liter (182.26 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.3 percent to 59 cents/liter (223.3475 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -10.85 cents/liter (-41.09 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 1.9 percent last week but were quiet in early week trading and gained 0.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 4 cents/liter (15.14 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week but saw mild support develop through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.2 percent while Toluene was up 2.1 percent, and Xylene was up 1.6 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 70.58 cents/liter (267.19 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 22.44 cents/liter (84.93 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but moved sharply higher in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 1.9 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 2.2 and up 1.8 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 3.1 percent higher at $62.89/barrel while Brent futures are up 3.1 percent to $65.86/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to India seeing the largest gains (up 4 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 3 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is steady this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 2 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 35 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset scattered gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 2.1 percent this week and are down 4.9 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $673.22/MT this week, down 3.2 percent from the prior week and down 8.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $668.32/MT and are down 2 percent from last week and are down 5.5 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.8 percent from last week.
