Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 4.5 percent higher but pared those gains in early week trading and fell 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.58 cents/liter (176.34 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 2.2 percent higher and are up 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.51 cents/liter (172.29 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1 percent to 52.79 cents/liter (199.85 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.28 cents/liter (-27.56 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 0.5 percent last week but rallied sharply in early week trading to gain 5.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 13.7 cents/liter (51.87 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were mostly weaker through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.1 percent while Toluene was down 0.9 percent, and Xylene was down 1.7 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 68.49 cents/liter (259.27 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 22.98 cents/liter (86.98 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week but rallied in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 4 percent so far this week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 3.6 and up 3.5 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 3.6 percent higher at $69.61/barrel while Brent futures are up 2.9 percent to $73.19/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are steady/weaker this week as global freight markets have entered the holiday slow-demand period. On average, tanker freight rates from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.25 percent this week while rates from the PNW are down 0.4 percent and rates from Brazil sipped 0.2 percent.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mixed this week with higher FOB prices from the Gulf offsetting lower freight rates while weaker FOB prices from the PNW have caused CNF rates to fall. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.7 percent this week and are down 14.9 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $660.58/MT this week, down 1.9 percent from the prior week and down 11.4 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $655.77/MT and are up 1.6 percent from last week but are down 12 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia unchanged from last week and average $699.75/MT.
