Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 4.5 percent higher but were unchanged in early week trading through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.85 cents/liter (177.34 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.4 percent higher and are up 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.52 cents/liter (172.31 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.4 percent to 54.81 cents/liter (207.48 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.29 cents/liter (-35.17 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 1.7 percent last week and were weaker still in early week trading as they fell 0.3 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 8.74 cents/liter (33.1 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.3 percent while Toluene was down 2.7 percent, and Xylene was down 2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 79.26 cents/liter (300.02 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 33.74 cents/liter (127.7 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but have reversed that dynamic in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 4.2 and up 4.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.7 percent higher at $70.66/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.5 percent to $74.21/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are mostly unchanged this week, but offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest gains (up 20 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to India saw the largest declines and is down 4 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 3 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are unchanged, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 16 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week FOB ethanol values climbing higher while freight rates have been mostly steady. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 3.3 percent this week and are down 19.6 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $683.97/MT this week, up 3.9 percent from the prior week but down 17.8 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $651.53/MT and are up 2.4 percent from last week but are down 20.7 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.3 percent from last week.
