Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.3 percent higher and found additional support in early week trading and rose 3.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 48.15 cents/liter (182.26 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.7 percent lower but are up 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.59 cents/liter (172.56 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.3 percent to 55.13 cents/liter (208.685 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.54 cents/liter (-36.12 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 5.9 percent last week but pared those gains in early week trading to fall 1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 21.37 cents/liter (80.9 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week but pushed lower through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 1.5 percent while Toluene was up 1.6 percent, and Xylene was up 0.7 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 74.5 cents/liter (282.02 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 28.92 cents/liter (109.46 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but strengthened in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 4 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 1.6 and up 2.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 5.6 percent higher at $72.02/barrel while Brent futures are up 5.7 percent to $75.61/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week but offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia saw the largest gains (up 1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to Brazil saw the largest declines and is down 7 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2 percent this week while freight from the PNW is unchanged. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 2 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 25 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.3 percent this week and are down 30.4 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $708.41/MT this week, up 0.9 percent from the prior week but down 25.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $659.44/MT and are up 1.3 percent from last week but are down 29.7 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.2 percent from last week.
