Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.6 percent lower and extended those losses in early week trading and fell 1.7 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 51.81 cents/liter (196.14 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.2 percent lower and are down 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 51.09 cents/liter (193.41 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 3.7 percent to 59.45 cents/liter (225.05 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.36 cents/liter (-31.64 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 1.6 percent last week and extended those gains in early week trading to gain 0.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 22.66 cents/liter (85.78 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week but were mixed in muted trade through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.1 percent while Toluene was down 0.4 percent, and Xylene was down 0.3 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 85.46 cents/liter (323.51 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 34.37 cents/liter (130.09 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but pulled back in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1.6 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 3.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.5 percent higher at $77.97/barrel while Brent futures are up 0.9 percent to $80.39/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent lower on average this week but offers for the U.S. Gulf to India saw the largest gains (up 2 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to China saw the largest declines and is down 9 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 6 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 4 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower liquid tanker freight rates have offset slight gains in FOB ethanol offers. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.9 percent this week and are down 16.4 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $825.26/MT this week, up 3.5 percent from the prior week and up 1.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $742.07/MT and are down 0.7 percent from last week and are down 14.7 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 2.6 percent from last week.
