Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.8 percent lower and pushed lower still in early week trading and fell 2.5 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.5 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.51 cents/liter (176.06 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.9 percent lower but are up 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.02 cents/liter (170.41 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.8 percent to 55.05 cents/liter (208.4 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -10.04 cents/liter (-37.99 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 1.8 percent last week but reversed course in early week trading to fall 1.9 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 35.17 cents/liter (133.15 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were mostly higher through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.4 percent while Toluene was up 0.3 percent, and Xylene was down 0.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 101.26 cents/liter (383.3 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 56.24 cents/liter (212.88 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week and extended those losses in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1.4 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 1.9 and up 0.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.2 percent higher at $81.62/barrel while Brent futures are up 0.5 percent to $85.26/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 43 percent). Freight from Brazil to India saw the largest declines and is down 3 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 5 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are largely unchanged this week while freight rates across all origins are 38 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.5 percent this week and are down 23.6 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $558.1/MT this week, down 28.8 percent from the prior week and down 36.2 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $697.88/MT and are down 0.4 percent from last week and are down 21.8 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 22.5 percent from last week.
