Ethanol Market and Pricing Data – October 17, 2017

1. Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing

Market Outlook: CBOT ethanol futures were pulled higher at the end of last week by rising corn futures. After a sharply lower trading day on Monday, the markets are higher again on Tuesday, following gains in crude oil markets. November ethanol futures are 0.34 cents/liter (1.3 cents/gallon) higher than the previous week at $0.37.86/liter ($1.433/gallon).

Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices are 1.4 percent lower to start this week, following light buying interest in the cash market. The average rack price is 41.58 cents/liter ($1.574/gallon), down 0.58 cents/liter (2.19 cents/gallon) versus this same time last week. Similarly, FOB Houston ethanol prices fell 1.8 percent versus last week, priced at 38.83 cents/liter ($1.47/gallon), a 0.726-cent/liter (2.75-cent/gallon) decrease from the prior week.

In Brazil, FOB Santos anhydrous ethanol prices are largely unchanged from last week. FOB Santos prices are quoted at 56.797 cents/liter ($2.15/gallon), down fractionally (0.4 cents/gallon or 0.106 cents/liter) from the prior week. Hydrous ethanol is becoming competitive against gasoline in South Brazil but is losing competitiveness in the Center West, North East, and South East of the country. Ethanol is generally competitive against gasoline at the retail pump when priced at 70 percent of less of retail gasoline values. Currently, ethanol is valued at 69.8 percent of gasoline in the Center West, 80.5 percent in the North East, 66.5 percent in the South East, and 72.7 percent in South Brazil.

Between lower FOB Houston ethanol prices and steady FOB Santos, Brazil prices, the Houston-Santos price spread has moved to favor U.S.-origin product more heavily this week. The spread, last quoted at -17.9 cents/liter (-68 cents/gallon) widened 0.621 cents/liter (2.35 cents/gallon) this week. The spread is now at its widest in the past six months.

MTBE prices are sharply higher this week and are approaching 6-month highs. MTBE prices rose 6 percent (10.81 cents/gallon or 2.86 cents/liter) this week to end at $0.5316/liter ($2.0125/gallon). BTX prices were steady this week with no appreciable change. MTBE is currently 14.79 cents/liter (56 cents/gallon) more expensive than FOB Houston ethanol.

Gasoline prices are steady/higher this week, driving by crude oil prices rising on macroeconomic news. RBOB futures are down 1.06 cents/liter (4 cents/gallon) and 83.7 octane RBOB and 87 octane RBOB prices FOB U.S. Gulf are slightly higher. Brent and WTI crude oil futures are $0.2712/liter ($1.04/gallon) and $0.3883/liter ($1.47/gallon) higher this week, respectively.

Price Database: If you are interested in historical price data, please click here.