Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 4.6 percent higher and extended those gains in early week trading and rose 3.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 0.5 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.22 cents/liter (174.97 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 3.6 percent lower but are up 2.5 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.81 cents/liter (173.43 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.2 percent to 48.84 cents/liter (184.89 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -3.03 cents/liter (-11.47 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices were unchanged last week but were weaker in early week trading and fell 0.9 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 20.19 cents/liter (76.42 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but turned higher through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 2.5 percent while Toluene was up 1.1 percent, and Xylene was up 1.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 90.59 cents/liter (342.93 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 44.78 cents/liter (169.51 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week but reversed that trend in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1.4 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 1.1 and 3.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.1 percent lower at $72.24/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.6 percent to $77.5/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia seeing the largest gains (up 1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 3 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are unchanged, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 4 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 2.2 percent this week and are down 24.5 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $701.48/MT this week, up 0.1 percent from the prior week but down 22.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $685.35/MT and are up 2.1 percent from last week but are down 26.2 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 1.1 percent from last week.
