Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week unchanged in quiet trade but were weaker in early week trading and fell 0.4 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 0.7 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 66.22 cents/liter (250.67 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 2.2 percent lower but are up 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 66.08 cents/liter (250.14 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 2.5 percent to 59.37 cents/liter (224.75 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at 6.71 cents/liter (25.39 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 0.8 percent last week and extended that weakness in early week trading to fall 7.3 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 43.89 cents/liter (166.16 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and continued that performance through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.7 percent while Toluene was down 1.3 percent, and Xylene was down 1.2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 108.79 cents/liter (411.81 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 42.71 cents/liter (161.68 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but are steady/higher in early week trade. RBOB futures are unchanged to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 0.2 and down 0.9 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.4 percent higher at $90.39/barrel while Brent futures are up 0.6 percent to $92.55/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 6 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 38 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to India saw the largest declines and is down 6 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 10 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 6 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 7 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 27 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.5 percent this week and are down 2 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $837.54/MT this week, down 2.8 percent from the prior week and down 8.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $946.1/MT and are down 0.1 percent from last week and are down 5.9 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 1.1 percent from last week.
