Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 9.8 percent lower but were steady in early week trading through Monday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 1.4 percent through Monday’s market close to their last quote of 69.44 cents/liter (262.87 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 7.2 percent lower and are down 2.3 percent through Monday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 65.05 cents/liter (246.25 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 2.9 percent to 62.61 cents/liter (236.99 cents/gallon) through Monday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Monday’s trading and is currently at 2.45 cents/liter (9.26 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 0.9 percent last week but were stronger in early week trading to gain 1.1 percent from Friday’s close through Monday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 3.34 cents/liter (12.65 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued to weaken through Monday’s market close: Benzene was down 3 percent while Toluene was down 0.3 percent, and Xylene was down 0.3 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 90.4 cents/liter (342.19 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 25.34 cents/liter (95.94 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but fell in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 0.3 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are both unchanged. WTI futures are 1.5 percent higher at $71.7/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.5 percent to $76.54/barrel, from Friday through Monday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia seeing the largest declines as the route is down 3 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 2 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 39 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 6.3 percent this week and are down 13.3 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $858.37/MT this week, down 2.8 percent from the prior week and down 16.2 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $907.72/MT and are down 6.2 percent from last week and are down 16.7 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 1.8 percent from last week.
