Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.9 percent higher but pared those gains in early week trading and fell 1.5 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 73.62 cents/liter (278.67 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 4.6 percent higher but are down 0.5 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 71.42 cents/liter (270.34 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.4 percent to 65.01 cents/liter (246.1 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at 6.4 cents/liter (24.24 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 1.3 percent last week and erased some of those gains in early week trading to fall 0.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at -3.61 cents/liter (-13.65 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued to weaken through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 3 percent while Toluene was down 1.1 percent, and Xylene was down 1.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 91.45 cents/liter (346.17 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 20.03 cents/liter (75.83 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but fell in early week trade. RBOB futures are unchanged to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 0.7 and up 2.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.1 percent lower at $67.7/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.7 percent to $72.78/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 25 percent). Freight from the U.S. PNW to South Korea saw the largest declines and is down 1 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are unchanged, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 39 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have climbed higher. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.6 percent this week and are down 8.1 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $892.46/MT this week, up 0.3 percent from the prior week but down 15.2 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $993.38/MT and are up 1.1 percent from last week but are down 12.5 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0 percent from last week.
