Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.8 percent higher but were steady in early week trading through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 1.4 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 70.38 cents/liter (266.43 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 2.1 percent higher and are up 1.8 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 69.92 cents/liter (264.69 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.2 percent to 64.91 cents/liter (245.7 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at 5.02 cents/liter (18.99 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 3.7 percent last week and added to those gains in early week trading to gain 0.6 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at -2.12 cents/liter (-8.03 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued to weaken through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 4.1 percent while Toluene was down 0.1 percent, and Xylene was down 0.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 92.73 cents/liter (351.03 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 22.81 cents/liter (86.34 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but fell in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 2.7 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 3.2 and unchanged, respectively. WTI futures are 1.5 percent lower at $70.85/barrel while Brent futures are down 0.9 percent to $75.9/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia seeing the largest gains (up 3 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America saw the largest declines and is down 6 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW is steady. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are also unchanged, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 39 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 2.7 percent this week and are down 11.8 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $893.61/MT this week, up 1.1 percent from the prior week but down 16.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $977.31/MT and are up 2.7 percent from last week but are down 15.9 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1 percent from last week.
