Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.4 percent lower and remained unchanged in early week trading through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 68.57 cents/liter (259.55 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.6 percent higher but are down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 68.06 cents/liter (257.63 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.8 percent to 62.69 cents/liter (237.305 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at 5.37 cents/liter (20.32 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 3.6 percent last week and reversed that trend in early week trading to fall 1.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 2.58 cents/liter (9.78 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week but weakened slightly through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 2 percent while Toluene and Xylene were unchanged. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 95.26 cents/liter (360.59 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 27.2 cents/liter (102.97 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but strengthened in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 2.2 and up 2.3 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.1 percent higher at $71.83/barrel while Brent futures are up 0.3 percent to $76.34/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 5 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia saw the largest declines and is down 8 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is unchanged this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 4 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 25 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.1 percent this week and are down 13 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $868.02/MT this week, up 1.3 percent from the prior week but down 23.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $956.89/MT and are down 0.4 percent from last week and are down 12.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 2 percent from last week.
