News & Events
This chart illustrates the dynamics of Morocco's coarse grains supply and demand. The grey area in the chart shows production, which in Morocco is mostly barley. The saw-tooth nature of the production area reflects the weather dependency of Morocco's crop production. The total use and feed use lines show strong growth over time. But that growth can be derailed by a series of bad harvests, as was the case in 2007 and 2008.
The Census Bureau reported U.S. DDGS exports at 612,638 metric tons in February, which is a 1 percent increase over January exports. China (blue line) accounted for 25 percent, or almost 150,000 metric tons, of total shipments.As the largest swine producer and consumer, China will increasingly become a more consistent importer of feed grains.
The 2012 Prospective Plantings report projects that U.S. producers will plant 95.9 million acres (38.81 million hectares) of corn in 2012 – the highest corn planted area since 1937, up 3.9 million acres (1.6 m ha) from 2011 and slightly above the area planted in 2007 (up 2.4 m acres or 0.95 m ha).
South Korea is one of the best examples of how high commodity prices encourage the search for alternative feed ingredients.
The columns in blue show total Korean corn feed use (all imported) over the past decade, rising to 7 million metric tons (278.6 million bushels) in 2007/2008 and declining to 6 million tons (236.2 million bushels) in 2011/2012. But that decline in corn use is more than compensated for by increases in wheat feeding and distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) imports.
This chart shows the growth of non-U.S. corn exports over the past decade. While China's exports disappeared by 2007, others' exports have grown. Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine account for 22 million metric tons (866 million bushels) of export growth over the decade.
The USDA 'Baseline to 2021' includes this projection for coarse grain import demand growth over the coming decade. Coarse grains here are mainly corn, sorghum and barley. The USDA model anticipates that China's coarse grains imports will rise 16 million metric tons. Mexico is the second most important growth market, with import growth of 8 million metric tons. Korea also shows import growth of more than one million tons.
Over the past decade, world sorghum production has risen slightly from 60 million metric tons (2.4 billion bushels) to 65 million metric tons (2.6 million bushels). While the United States, Argentina and Australia account for only 23 to 30 percent of this production, they remain the top exporters of sorghum - accounting for 93 to 97 percent of total world exports.
The chart above displays actual distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) imports for selected markets for calendar year 2011 against projections for DDGS imports by those markets in 2013. The third column shows the U.S. Grains Council's internal calculations of the maximum potential demand for DDGS in those markets.
While actual DDGS trade will depend on price relationships in coming years, this chart illustrates the assessment of the U.S. Grains Council's international staff that export markets still have untapped growth potential.
In a recent study commissioned by the U.S. Grains Council, the respected Chinese market analysis firm JCI reported that the new Five-Year Plan in China will restrict ethanol and dried distiller’s grains with solubles (DDGS) production growth to no more than 5 percent annually. Assuming an appropriate price for DDGS relative to corn and soybean meal, JCI projects that China’s imports of DDGS will grow steadily, reaching 6 million metric tons in 2016 and accounting for 42 percent of total DDGS use.
Recent activity in Ukraine’s national grain production has attracted attention and potential concern over global market impact.
To offset a record bumper crop, Ukraine removed its export duties on wheat and corn last year. As the chart below illustrates, coarse grain production in 2010/2011 exceeded 20 million metric tons. While domestic demand only currently accounts for half of production, if Ukraine’s government continues to remove trade restrictions and open its markets, the surplus in grain exports could potentially flood neighboring markets and undercut suppliers.