Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report surprised many by the sheer scale of the net short positions by funds. Coverage was then pursued sparking a small rally. Nonetheless, short positions remain large. Then the U.S. Federal Reserve expressed concerns about a softer than expected economy, tanking the dollar and sparking commodity markets. This bullish input pulled the equities market into the black for the first time in 2016 but it was not enough to hold up the price of agricultural commodities.
All of this may be small potatoes relative to the USDA reports on stocks and planting intentions at the end of this month. The latter report holds the most interest, particularly if it indicates a different story than the increase in corn acres expected by the trade. The May contract currently cannot break through the resistance at $3.70-$3.75; a bullish planting intentions report would break this barrier.
Notably, Brazil has exported a record amount of corn but now there are reports it may have to import some to meet domestic demands.