Country News
Argentina: The forecast indicates there is little likelihood for rain over the short-term. A “worst case scenario” may be developing with corn the hardest hit. As much as 58 percent of the crop is said to be in poor condition. The Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate for corn production to 35 MMT, versus USDA’s February prediction of 39 MMT. (Reuters; AgriCensus)
Brazil: The consultancy AgRural has put the harvest of the center-south’s first crop corn at 15 percent, versus 16 percent a year ago, and planting of the safrinha crop at 26 percent, which is 5 percent behind average. Meanwhile, corn export sales in the first half of February were 732 KMT, which is more than during the whole month of February in 2017. Sales to the EU have increased five-fold and now account for almost half of all European imports. Sale prices ($182.50 – $190.50/MT) have been 95-115 percent premiums to Chicago’s March contract as supplies tighten and uncertainty mounts over planting of the safrinha crop. (AgriCensus)
France: FranceAgriMer says the corn production area in 2017 fell by 2.6 percent but total production increased 14.8 percent as yields increased by 15 percent to 9.74 MT/ha. Meanwhile, barley prices hit €165/MT FOB Rouen, a two-year record due to tightening supplies. (AgriCensus; Reuters)
Kenya: Drought has forced the highest amount of maize imports in the past five years. Thus far this year 77.5 KMT ($31.2 million) have been purchased from Uganda and 10 KMT from Tanzania, but supply is not keeping up with demand. The National Cereals and Produce Board is expected to purchase another 51.75 KMT. (EastAfrican)
Russia: Barley sales reached 3.93 MMT, a 96 percent increase over 2017/18. Corn exports reached 2.93 MMT, a 3.2 percent reduction from last year. (AgriCensus)
Saudi Arabia: Tightening global barley stocks forced the state buying agency SAGO to pay 12.3 percent more for a recent purchase of 960 KMT of feed barley. The country typically buys 8 MMT of barley to feed its goat, camel and sheep herds. (AgriCensus)
South Africa: Rainfall has arrived, but it is late and has impacted plantings. Production in the northwest part of the production area is still facing issues. USDA’s export forecast of 1.7 MMT for South Africa may have to be cut. (AgriCensus)
South Korea: The major feed organizations NOFI and KFAB have tendered for a total of 128 KMT of corn for May loading and June delivery to the port of Busan. Buyers are getting anxious over rising prices as a result of Argentina’s drought. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: The Argentine situation is giving Ukraine an edge in selling corn during March/April. However, premiums for FOB March Panamax loadings ($0.80/bushel over the Chicago March contract or $182.50/MT) have been pushed to 18-month highs. Key buyers are China, the EU and Egypt but the sale of Panamax vessels to China has created tight logistics. China is now likely to take 3 MMT of corn from Ukraine, versus 2 MMT last year, and the EU is likely to come into the market in April when stocks have been run low. (Platts)
Still, the margins being received by farmers are severely pressured, falling into the single digits according to the Ukraine Grain Association. The Association says that margins were 46 percent last year. Low global prices have caused sellers to become discerning. (AgriCensus)