With the onset of summer, hot and dry conditions swept across many of India’s key agricultural areas. Due in part to the El Niño weather phenomenon, monsoons essential to Indian agriculture are not coming as quickly as expected, leading to speculation over production and prices for summer crops.

Late Monsoons Delay Planting

The southwest, or summer, monsoon provides vital rains to farmland throughout India where more than half of the country has no access to irrigation. As the monsoon moves northward throughout the season, the heavy rains cool the stifling heat and provide water for a variety of different summer crops.

In June, pre-monsoon rains reached India and brought relief to the dry weather in some parts. However, the rains were up to a week late in their movement northward in some areas, delaying the planting of various crop and the transplanting of rice. Rainfall predictions for the entire season are below average, with areas in northwestern India expected to receive the least rain at only 85 percent of the average.

Late planting, along with a drier season, will likely lead to decreased production in rice, cotton, soybeans and corn. Indian officials have recommended that farmers use short-duration seeds of cotton, corn and soybeans this year to help alleviate these concerns.

Implications of a Dry Year

If below average production is seen in Indian summer crops, prices for these commodities will increase accordingly, affecting costs for Indian consumers and exports of these goods.

“India continues to export rice, particularly Basmati rice,” said Amit Sachdev, U.S. Grains Council consultant in India. “If the production of rice is affected, the country may consider a trade embargo or export duty.”

These production concerns highlight the need for access to irrigation in many parts of the country. As a result, officials are planning to grow irrigation coverage by a tenth by 2017 to allow these areas to be less reliant on seasonal rains.

As the summer monsoon begins its late move through India, farmers are forced to wait for good soil moisture to plant their summer crops and are expecting less rain overall as a result of an El Niño year. The dry conditions may affect the production ability of these farms, leading to increased prices for consumers locally and abroad. However, the severity of these potential shortages will only be seen as the summer season progresses.