U.S. Trade Potential in China

On Tuesday, the Council released estimates of China’s 2011 corn production based on its annual Corn Harvest Survey. The Council projects a bumper crop of 167 million metric tons (6.6 billion bushels).

Tom Dorr, USGC President and CEO, Kevin Rempp, USGC Advisory Team member, and Don Hutchens, Executive Director for Nebraska Corn Board, presented details of the tour in a press conference that morning, including analysis on harvest conditions, crop quality and yield determinants.

The Council believes that China’s projected corn production, while likely a record, is insufficient to fully meet domestic demand, and that China will need to import in order to fill the trade gap and replenish stocks.

The graph above shows that China’s corn consumption has exceeded production by 40 million tons (1.6 billion bushels) over the last seven years, drawing stocks down below comfortable levels.

Click here to see photos from the tour, or here to listen to a Council Cast recording of the press conference.  A PowerPoint PDF of the tour is also available.