Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: December Corn futures have shown little excitement following last week’s WASDE report. There has been little news to support either bullish or bearish arguments, though the bears seem to be winning the market direction battle. The contract has remained under bearish technical and fundamental pressure but seasonal lows are typically scored during September. The most important numbers traders can receive now are yield results from U.S. combines.
The latest USDA report noted 34 percent of U.S. corn is rated “mature,” behind the typical development pace. USDA also reported 7 percent of the crop is harvested, behind the typical pace of 11 percent. Good, warmer-than-average weather across much of the Corn Belt this week will aid in maturation and drying.
Corn exports have been lackluster to start the year. YTD exports total 55.8 million bushels so far, half of the 109 million bu. that had been exported at this time last year. Still, it’s too early in the crop year to worry about the export pace, especially with the South American crop competing against U.S. exports.
December corn futures remain under bearish technical pressure, lodged in a downtrend and unable to break above their 20-day moving average. Still, the contract is only 10 cents above its life-of-contract low ($3.44 ¼, reached on August 31), which many traders expect will be this year’s seasonal low. As such, the contract is largely caught in a choppy, sideways trading range. Should the market breach the $3.44 mark, it would signal resumption of the long-term down trend and usher in a swift round of selling. Conversely, a move higher would meet resistance at $3.62 and would likely be followed by a slow grind higher.