While the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered corn yields and total corn production from its October estimate yesterday, U.S. Grains Council President and CEO Thomas C. Dorr noted that the decrease was generally anticipated and within expectations.
“Projections that ending stocks will reach levels last seen in the mid-1990s could create some additional volatility in the marketplace, but this is not uncharted territory. While market ups and downs do occur, they do not alter the position of the United States as a reliable supplier of grains,� Dorr said.
In its World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report, USDA forecast corn yields at 154.3 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from last month but still the third-largest on record. Yields at that level result in a 2010/2011 crop of 12.54 billion bushels, also the third-largest on record. A year ago, 13.1 billion bushels were produced thanks to extraordinary record yields, while in 2008, 12.1 billion bushels of corn were produced.
Based on its new production estimates, USDA adjusted anticipated usage lowering ending stocks – the amount of corn left over at the end of the 2010/2011 marketing year – to 827 million bushels, down from 902 million bushels in last month’s estimate. Ending stocks a year ago were 1.71 billion bushels, while stocks in 2008/2009 were 1.67 billion.
“Certainly we recognize that tighter ending stocks will impact corn prices, and USDA reflected that in its average farm price estimate,� Dorr said. “Yet over the long-term we anticipate U.S. farmers will continue to produce adequate supplies that meet market demand. Their efforts and investments in technology and know-how give us confidence in the corn supply going forward.�
The supply of feed co-products, including distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), which are produced by ethanol plants, will grow in the coming year.
“These co-products provide a tremendous opportunity to diversify livestock and poultry rations,� Dorr said. “They are high-quality feed ingredients that offer nutritional benefits and may lower overall feed costs.�
Should U.S. ethanol production continue as it has, DDGS production will move past 33 million metric tons in the coming year. DDGS exports, which the Council anticipates will surpass 8 million tons this year, will also expand in 2011.