As the summer corn harvest ends, total corn production in Brazil has exceeded initial expectations, causing prices to drop. Many traders believed, however, that prices would increase, which resulted in fewer sales made at the beginning of the year. As such, export volumes are low as a large corn crop enters the market.

Production for the summer crop is nearly complete at 32.2 million metric tons, with 100 percent of the crop harvested in southern and central parts of the country. Total production expectations are now estimated at 75 million tons.

Despite ample production, export volumes for shipments from July through September are considerably lower than previous years because of the higher initial price expectations.

“Some foreign trading companies had forecasted, at the beginning of the year, that the Brazilian crop would be around 66 million metric tons,” said Alfredo Navarro de Andrade, U.S. Grains Council consultant in Brazil. “Those who believed that information thought the market was bullish and decided not to sell their crop. Now, however, there is a confirmed crop of over 75 million tons.”

Because of the low sales volume at the beginning of the year coupled with larger-than-expected production, Brazil will have surplus of corn in the coming months. Whether this surplus can make it to market quickly will depend on government subsidies and logistics. Despite talk about the new northern corn shipping ports, little corn is being shipped from those areas. Ultimately, with strong corn production expected in the United States as well as in other exporting countries, import demand will be the factor that can change export volumes in Brazil for the rest of the year.