After 30 years of at or near double digit economic growth, China’s capacity to continue increasing domestic corn and feed grain production is believed to be below projected consumption growth. The demand potential is clearly there. Recent trade disruptions affecting in the export of U.S. corn and distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) exports to China, have driven Chinese corn prices sharply above world market levels. But U.S. competitors such as Brazil also face barriers in entering this market.

The U.S. Grains Council’s Representative in Brazil Alfredo Navarro’s assessment this week reported frustration that that the phytosanitary agreement signed November 2013 between Brazil and China has not yet led to significant Brazilian corn exports to China, as the total for 2014 is only 2,900 metric tons (114,000 bushels), all exported prior to the agreement. Brazilian sources, however, continue to hope that this will change.

At the time the phytosanitary agreement was signed, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture estimated that Chinese corn imports could soon reach 10 million tons (394 million bushels) per year. Longer term, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate that China could import 19.6 million tons (772 million bushels) of corn by 2022. Meanwhile a prominent Brazilian leader relayed an estimate from an unnamed Chinese official that actual imports could be substantially higher.

Brazil will compete aggressively for a share of that market, but it faces some of the same challenges as does the United States. Chinese imports of U.S. corn are currently blocked by China’s continuing failure to approve MIR 162, a biotech event approved in all other major markets.

The three top corn exporters, the United States, Brazil and Argentina, all have approved MIR 162. Brazilian sources believe, however, that Chinese approval is just a matter of time, and that approval is likely to be timed to take advantage of market lows. Brazil intends to be ready when the Chinese market reopens.

U.S. producers have grown accustomed to increasing competition, and China is shaping up as one more arena in the ongoing battle for market share. The Council will continue to promote the United States as the reliable, long-term coarse grains and co-products in global markets, including China, to grow U.S. market share across the globe.