The drought has been steadily lifting, and even in the northern and western corn belt, U.S. farmers finally got what they’ve needed — at least a start. The rains were nine months too late for last year’s crop, but with 2013 planting around the corner, it was welcome news. But one good rain doesn’t break a drought — and while the snow and heavy rains that recently swept across the Midwest are contributing much needed moisture, wet and wintery conditions keep farmers out of the field while the rest of the world anxiously watches.

Planting delays in China, expected rains in Brazil and Argentina and cool conditions in Ukraine did not seem to affect USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), which projected an increase in world coarse grains production. In fact, the report projects that Brazil is on track for a record production of 74 million metric tons (2.9 billion bushels). According to BlackSeaGrain.net, Ukraine is working towards increasing its grain production potential to 100-150 million tons. The president of a major U.S. agribusiness claims Ukraine will be able to export 100 million tons. All this factors into one thing – 2013 remains a competitive year.

As expected, USDA lowered its U.S. corn export projection to 20.3 million tons (800 million bushels). China’s projected imports from the U.S. were raised from 2.5 to 3 million tons (98.4 million to 118 million bushels), as it has already imported 2.4 million tons (94.4 million bushels) with 77,000 tons (3.0 million bushels) of known purchases on the books, yet to be shipped. The increase in Chinese imports is offset by a decrease in exports to Mexico. Corn use for ethanol was increased slightly to 115.5 million tons (4.55 billion bushels) with feed and residual use decreased from 115.5 to 111.7 million tons (4.55 to 4.4 billion bushels). In sum, lower domestic feed use combined with lower exports equals high U.S. ending stocks.