The USDA ‘Baseline to 2021’ includes this projection for coarse grain import demand growth over the coming decade. Coarse grains here are mainly corn, sorghum and barley. The USDA model anticipates that China’s coarse grains imports will rise 16 million metric tons. Mexico is the second most important growth market, with import growth of 8 million metric tons. Korea also shows import growth of more than one million tons.

Other estimates are reported by regions. The Middle East and North Africa will experience strong import growth, followed by Other Asia (mainly Southeast Asia) and Other South America (excluding Brazil).

Total coarse grain import growth over the decade is projected to be 45 million tons, so China and Mexico may account for about half of the total world coarse grain import growth.