“How bad is it, really?”

For many of the 200-plus foreign grain buyers converging for Export Exchange 2012, the U.S. drought was Topic A … and the very fact that they were meeting in Minneapolis with more than 300 U.S. exporters and agribusinesses, ready and eager to do business, was itself an important part of the answer. In the face of the worst drought in decades, a short crop, and rising prices, the U.S. remains open for business, committed to the global market, and the world’s most reliable supplier of feed grains.

Among the “stars of the show” at Export Exchange were two producers, Ron Gray of Illinois and John Mages of Minnesota, whose experience spanned the extremes of 2012. Ron, who farms in southern Illinois, was in the bullseye of the drought; in fact, one highlight of his summer was hosting a Chinese television crew, which wanted to document the severity of the conditions. Meanwhile, 750 miles northwest in west-central Minnesota, John enjoyed record yields.

And both John and Ron had the same message for the international attendees: we’ll be back stronger than ever next year.

To the more than 200 foreign buyers and end-users, these and other presentations highlighted the sheer size and resiliency of the U.S. production capacity. Even with an historic drought, U.S. corn production in 2012 is projected as the eighth largest in history, and drought-depressed U.S. yields would be record setters in most other parts of the world.

USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber reinforced the message, noting that the U.S. production losses in 2012 are largely offset by increases elsewhere in the world, and that crop insurance leaves most U.S. producers in a strong position to rebound next year. The United States was on track to an all-time record, 14 billion bushel corn harvest in 2012, before the drought intervened. The 2012 drought will have significant short term impacts — but foreign buyers left Minneapolis reassured that the U.S. production system is already gearing up for a strong rebound next year.