Efforts are intensifying in Geneva to secure a trade package for consideration at the December World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial in Bali, and member countries hope to develop a broad enough package to signal that trade liberalization at the multi-lateral level is still possible and desirable.

Last week, a U.S. Grains Council fact-finding mission joined representatives of U.S. Wheat Associates and the American Farm Bureau in intensive discussions on agricultural issues with representatives of the WTO and the missions of several of the key governmental participants, including the United States, European Union, Canada, Brazil, New Zealand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia.

Among the key issues under consideration are sections on trade facilitation, food security, export competition, tariff rate quota administration and development. A particular point of contention at this time is the G33 Food Security proposal, spearheaded by India and supported by a broad coalition of other lesser developed countries. India is seeking WTO accommodation of its plan to implement a massive food security initiative to fund the domestic purchase and distribution of wheat and rice, and perhaps other cereals as well, to the poor at heavily subsidized prices.

Since India is already in excess of its allowable domestic subsidy levels, this initiative would clearly violate its WTO obligations. As a result, the proposal has attracted vigorous opposition. At the same time, however, it is widely believed that failure to reach a resolution of this issue would make it impossible to achieve a successful Ministerial in Bali. With the long-stalled Doha Round already on life support, there is pressure to find an accommodation, perhaps by ensuring that the G33 include increased transparency, adequate safeguards, and be strictly time-limited.

The clock is ticking. WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo is pressing for a consensus by the end of October to allow time for the General Council to endorse a proposal at its last meeting next month before the Bali Ministerial. The proliferation of bilateral and regional trade agreements has led many observers to believe that the WTO process is superfluous. It remains clear, however, that broad based, enforceable multilateral agreements are preferable to piecemeal deals, IF they can be reached.

That continues to be a very big “IF.”