Home | News & events | Newsroom

Good News, Cautious Optimism from USDA on 2013 Crop

Posted on Barley Corn Sorghum

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its May 2013 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) last week. This is the first WASDE to provide official USDA supply-demand estimates for the 2013/14 crop. The estimates will be updated monthly. Here are some key messaging points from a U.S. Grains Council perspective:

Corn:

  • Record Corn Harvest Projected for 2013: USDA projects a record U.S. corn harvest of 359 million metric tons for 2013, up 31 percent from 2012’s drought impacted harvest of 274 million tons.
  • U.S.2013/14 corn exports projected at 1.3 million bushels, up 74 percent from 2012/13.
  • Yield: Due to the drought, U.S. corn yield in 2012 averaged 123.4 bushels/acre. At the Agricultural Outlook Conference in February, USDA’s initial estimate for 2013 projected a recovery to 163.5 bushels/acre. The May WASDE reduces the 2013 estimate by 5.6 bushels/acre, to 158 bushels/acres, to reflect the impact of delayed planting due to cold, wet weather across much of the corn belt. Area planted for 2013/14, however, remains high at 97.3 million acres, up marginally from 97.2 million acres estimated for 2012/13.
  • Average corn price ($/bushel) in 2013/14 is projected at $4.30-5.10, down from $6.70-7.10 in 2012/13.
  • There will be ample U.S. corn available for export at a moderate price. From the Council and our members’ perspective, we will be looking for an even greater rebound in exports than projected by USDA.
  • On current projections, however, U.S. export potential continues to be constrained by strong production elsewhere.
    • For 2013.14, WASDE projects a rebound throughout the northern hemisphere, with China posting modest gains (208 million tons in 2012/13 up to 212 million tons in 2013/14) and major gains in Ukraine (increase from 20.9 million tons to 26 million tons) and the EU-27 (increase from 57 million tons to 64 million tons).
    • Production in Argentina is projected as stable (26.5 million tons to 27 million tons), while production in Brazil is projected to decline slightly (76 million tons to 72 million tons).
    • Total non-U.S. production is projected to increase from 583 million tons to 606 million tons, up 4 percent.

Sorghum:

  • WASDE projects an even greater rebound in sorghum production, up from 247 million bushels in 2012/13 to 425 million bushels in 2013/14, an increase of 72 percent. Texas sorghum is projecting a huge crop due to problems with cotton planting this spring, again if the weather cooperates during the growing season.
     
  • Sorghum exports are projected to increase 53 percent, from 247 to 425 million bushels.

Barley:

  • Barley production is projected as level at 220 million bushels, with exports projected to grow slightly from nine to ten million bushels.

Two Cautions:

  • Most of the U.S. corn crop is not yet in the ground. Planting has been delayed due to a cold, wet spring. The weather picture is improving; this week (May 13-17) should see a large portion of the crop going into the ground. Further delays in planting will lead to increased soybean acreage at the expense of corn. It is important that the weather cooperate throughout this growing season due to last year’s drought.
     
  • At this time last year, USDA was also projecting a record crop. Planting conditions had been near ideal, and record acreage had been planted. The drought had not yet begun.