Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook:Grain contracts became volatile at the end of February; however, such price action is not unusual as traders commonly adjust positions at the end of the month. Such volatility is likely to again appear at the end of March, which will also be the end of the first quarter for the calendar year. Further facilitating volatility will be uncertainty regarding USDA’s reports during March.
The WASDE report will be published on March 10 and this is important to feed grain producers because there is a possibility that USDA could again increase their estimate for U.S. corn exports. U.S. corn export sales are presently running about 89 percent of the annual estimate, whereas normally the export sales pace is a little over 70 percent complete by this time of year. As well, USDA will publish the important Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting reports on March 31. There is often an aggressive price reaction to both of these reports. This season there will be a lot of anxious anticipation about potential acreage adjustments.
Weather during the month of March, and extended forecasts through April, will be another factor of uncertainty. As far as U.S. weather goes, the month of March seems poised to start off cold and but there is a possibility that temperatures could rebound above normal in the second part of the month. Temperature changes can influence moisture patterns. Warmer temperatures and sufficient moisture will be welcome, but excessive moisture can be a nuisance.
Farmers seem to recognize that impending uncertainties are sufficient in number that there is unlikely to be a substantial decline in feed grain prices anytime soon.