Corn Market Update: Estimates and Futures for 2015

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) out this week showed a U.S. corn crop for the 2014/2015 marketing year of almost 361 million metric tons (14.2 billion bushels), with yields projected at 10.7 tons per hectare (171 bushels per acre).

The latest yield and production estimates represent a slight reduction from previous estimates, but both remain at historic levels. The 2014/2015 marketing year will again offer another large crop for export.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) also lowered its world corn productions estimates this month by 3.5 million tons (138 million bushels) to 988 million tons (38 billion bushels). This is due to the decrease in U.S. corn production estimates, which is only partly offset by increased production in both the European Union and India. The EU’s total production estimates were increased by 371,000 tons (14.6 million bushels) to 74 million tons (2.9 billion bushels) and India’s production estimates were increased by 1 million tons (40 million bushels) to 22 million tons (866 million bushels).

On Tuesday, Jan. 13, CBOT corn futures declined to a 30-day low, affirming ample world inventories and concerns over declining demand.  Additionally, the weakening oil markets and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar have contributed to the 5 percent decline in corn prices this week. The focus moving forward will be on South America’s harvest, U.S. export demand and fund activity.