With the onset of summer, hot and dry conditions swept across many of India’s key agricultural areas. Due in part to the El Niño weather phenomenon, monsoons essential to Indian agriculture are not coming as quickly as usual, leading to speculation over production and prices for summer crops.

In June, pre-monsoon rains reached India and brought relief to the dry weather. However, the rains were up to a week late in their movement northward in some areas, delaying the planting of various crops and the transplanting of rice. Rainfall predictions for the entire season are below average, with areas in northwestern India expected to receive only 85 percent of average rainfall.

Indian officials have recommended that farmers use short-duration seeds of cotton, corn, and soybeans this year to help alleviate concerns about decreased production. If below average production materializes with India’s summer crops, prices for these commodities will increase accordingly, affecting costs for Indian consumers and exports of these goods.

“India continues to export rice, particularly Basmati rice,” said Amit Sachdev, U.S. Grains Council consultant in India. “If the production of rice is affected, the country may consider a trade embargo or export duty.”

These production concerns highlight the need for access to irrigation in many parts of the country. As a result, officials are planning to grow irrigation coverage by one-tenth by 2017 to allow these areas to be less reliant on seasonal rains.