With 40 percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) covered by the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks, Japan’s coming elections have implications that may shape the world’s economy for years to come.

“If it is done in a forward looking manner, the TPP will be a game changer for U.S. agriculture,” said U.S. Grains Council Chairman Ron Gray. “We realize that the politics of trade are tough, in the United States as well as in a number of other countries. That’s why the upcoming elections in Japan are so important.” 

Japan’s parliamentary elections will be held Dec. 14. Negotiations on TPP have been stalled by delays in reaching an agreement on bilateral U.S.-Japanese issues, especially on agricultural trade.

“Obviously TPP isn’t the only thing Japanese voters will be considering next week, but this is an important opportunity to strengthen the pro-economic growth and pro-trade coalition in a key negotiating partner,” Gray said. “U.S. farmers and agribusinesses have a vested interest in the outcome.”

TPP is a comprehensive trade and investment agreement that is currently under negotiation by 12 Pacific Rim countries with a combined population of 800 million. The TPP countries currently account for almost 40 percent of U.S. agricultural exports.

 A recent United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report underscored the importance of TPP to U.S. agriculture. U.S. farm exports to the other 11 TPP partners could rise by more than 5 percent if a high-quality agreement can be reached, with exports to Japan among the biggest opportunities.

“We understand that some sectors of Japanese agriculture are worried about increased competition,” Gray said. “But there are also real opportunities for Japan. Japan has one of the highest quality food systems in the world and is universally recognized for food safety.

“Japan can be an export platform for high-quality, value-added food products to the rest of Asia. That has worked for Japan in manufacturing, and it can work again here. Since a major expansion of Japanese food exports would require more imported ingredients, including feed grains, there is a real opportunity for the United States as well.”

Economic growth in Japan has been sluggish in recent years, and tax and economic issues dominate the current political debate. While the political campaign has not focused heavily on TPP, a stronger pro-trade policy helps support economic growth. The election results may be a key indicator of Japan’s readiness to address tough political issues like trade liberalization.