Chart of Note: U.S. Corn Carryover’s Influence on 2015 Planting Intentions

chart of note, corn carry over
This week’s Chart of Note illustrates that global corn stocks for the 2014/2015 marketing year are projected to be 185.3 million metric tons (7.3 billion bushels), the largest ending stocks since the 1999/2000 marketing year.

This week’s U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC's) Chart of Note illustrates that global corn stocks for the 2014/2015 marketing year are projected to be 185.3 million metric tons (7.3 billion bushels), the largest ending stocks since the 1999/2000 marketing year when 194.4 million tons (7.7 billion bushels) were carried over, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). 

Fifteen years ago, the high carryover contributed to an average price of $1.89 per bushel in the 1999/2000 marketing year. Since that time, the world has increased its demand for corn by 59 percent. This has helped sustain U.S. corn prices, which USDA projects in the $3.50 to $3.90 per bushel range for the 2014/2015 marketing year.

Costs, however, have also increased, and the projected price range for the 2014/2015 marketing year is close to many farmers’ costs of production with predictable results. Even with increased global demand, U.S. corn acreage is expected to decrease 2 percent this year to 89.2 million acres. If this happens, it would be the third consecutive year of acreage decline in the United States and the lowest planted acreage since 2010.

The USDA reports are only estimates and U.S. producers - and ultimately the weather - will have final say over how many acres of U.S. corn are planted this spring and bushels produced this fall.